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one reason why I think we Florida at least 18 months out |
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Category: Inspirational Current Grade: B Total Views: 502 Member Comments: 0 |
Posted on: 06/28/2007 Posted by: swflreia Blog Points: 115 View all blogs >> |
The March 2004 Elliott Wave Theorist identified a 7-year cycle in social fear extremes.
"Going back 30 years, there has been an extreme in social fear in the U.S. every seven years. All fixed-time cycles are temporary, so projection is speculative, but it has been a noteworthy progression to date. Here are the events that accompanied each peak:
1973: Arab oil embargo, with spillover into 1974 stock market low of wave IV.
1980: peak in the inflation rate; top in gold, silver and mining stocks, interest rate spike, stock-market “massacre” and low of wave 2.
1987: stock market crash and low of wave 4.
1994: “Republican Revolution;” suspicion of government due to Waco attack (1993), “black helicopters,” etc.; stock market breaks uptrend line at low; most bearish sentiment since 1984.
2001: successful terrorist attack on the World Trade Center.
This progression began seven (again) years after the end of Cycle wave III in 1966, which was the orthodox top of the Grand Supercycle for the DJIA measured in gold, as shown in Figure 7 in the February issue. If this 7-year cycle is a phenomenon of the great bear market, it may continue until the bear market ends, and it is a long way from over. Seven years after 2001 is 2008, so that is the next year to look for an extreme in social fear. If no extremity occurs that year (or very close to it), then consider the cycle ended."
this is one reason why I think we Florida at least 18 months out
"Going back 30 years, there has been an extreme in social fear in the U.S. every seven years. All fixed-time cycles are temporary, so projection is speculative, but it has been a noteworthy progression to date. Here are the events that accompanied each peak:
1973: Arab oil embargo, with spillover into 1974 stock market low of wave IV.
1980: peak in the inflation rate; top in gold, silver and mining stocks, interest rate spike, stock-market “massacre” and low of wave 2.
1987: stock market crash and low of wave 4.
1994: “Republican Revolution;” suspicion of government due to Waco attack (1993), “black helicopters,” etc.; stock market breaks uptrend line at low; most bearish sentiment since 1984.
2001: successful terrorist attack on the World Trade Center.
This progression began seven (again) years after the end of Cycle wave III in 1966, which was the orthodox top of the Grand Supercycle for the DJIA measured in gold, as shown in Figure 7 in the February issue. If this 7-year cycle is a phenomenon of the great bear market, it may continue until the bear market ends, and it is a long way from over. Seven years after 2001 is 2008, so that is the next year to look for an extreme in social fear. If no extremity occurs that year (or very close to it), then consider the cycle ended."
this is one reason why I think we Florida at least 18 months out
