The fix for the whole debacle - Vapor Paper Clarified...
Preview:
In a small town on the South Coast of France, the holiday season is in
full swing, but it is raining so there is not too much business taking
place.
Everyone is heavily in debt.
Luckily, a rich Russian tourist arrives in the foyer of the small local
hotel. He asks for a room and puts a Euro100 note on the reception
counter, takes a key and goes to inspect the room located up the stairs
on the third floor.
• The hotel owner takes the banknote in a hurry and rushes to his meat... continue reading >>
Wanna see where your $300B went from TARP 1?
Preview:
See pages 130-145 - a list of Banks the Government now OWNS due to its preferred stock holdings (which will soon be COMMON non-interest-bearing VOTING ownership)...
http://sigtarp.gov/reports/congress/2009/SIGTARP_Initial_Report_to_the_Congress.pdf
The "easy" view? Page 11, a tiny chart with a big view of a debacle yet to play out.. Note the BIG BOY percentages - these are our five "largest and strongest" Banks..
Don't worry, though - they want to pay it all back immediately, but the Fed won't let them. Uh huh - I wonder which one of them thinks they could write the check today. Their March quarterly balance sheets say... continue reading >>
There are four major phases to a Recession - The Short Version
Preview:
Simplest "phases", though the effects/thoughts differ as the distance from the damage changes (Ivory Tower vs. Street View):
From the Executive Government and/or large Corporate perspectives (they're similar in many ways).
1. Ignorance of the event (early). Life is good, "This will go on FOREVER" is the key phrase. (Everybody claims credit for the "Good Times".)
2. Denial of the obvious oddities some see coming. Discussions abound as to cause of the sudden small downturn, though denial is STRONG as to the existence of a REAL problem for which any simple fix will be... continue reading >>
Seven Banks Bite The Friday Bullet
Preview:
One Holding Company Bank (Security Bank Corporation) with six subsidiary
Banks across Georgia. FDIC took a $800MM hit, the seventh was a small
bite in NY, a paltry $61MM & a $5+MM FDIC loss.
Mr. Bernanke just today said the emergency bank-relief fund could be
bled down due to a return to stability in the Financial Sector. I guess
he forgot Georgia, where Sheila seems to be concentrating in the recent
past.
http://www.fdic.gov/
At $1B +/- per week, Mr. Bernanke might want to keep that slush fund
open a little... continue reading >>
"Looking For Data In All The Wrong Places"
Preview:
Well, I finally found the Mother Lode for Bank Data - NOT on the FRB
site, but in Sheila's World. I swear I'd scoured the FDIC site several
times in the past, but missed this mineshaft until I saw it on the link
in the last email (Bank Closing History).
Check the OREO balances from 2005 to 2008 - FOUR HUNDRED FIFTY PERCENT
growth. Other Vapor Paper can be seen, including "M3" expressed as
Total Assets of all FDIC Banks ($13T +/- in 2008). Nobody should need
more proof that... continue reading >>
We've taken a Banking System and turned it into a Stock Brokerage
Preview:
Direct Link to the Reports Page
http://www2.fdic.gov/sdi/main4.asp
It shows what I knew had to be but just couldn't prove 'til now.
One wonders how the media Gurus can escape the obvious for so long.
Ben knows all of what's so clearly shown here, as does Sheila, therefore
there is a PLAN to ensure few others would realize just how brittle the
"new normal" is.
The shoots I see are not green, and OREO totals are just a small part of
a huge hurdle yet to be attempted. We can't clear the... continue reading >>
I am sure we will see the 2005 Real Estate Market again.
Preview:
I was emailed the other day : " 2005 WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN! " Never underestimate the madness of crowds and their greed. I am sure we will see the 2005 Real Estate Market again. This is not the first time we have done this with Real Estate. It is not the last. We live in one big boom/bust cycle. Stocks brokers have said the same thing in, 1907, 1929, 1949, 1953, 1961, 1973, 1979, 1983, 1987, 1991, 2001, 2008. The market and those people do what they do, you can only protect yourself according. ... continue reading >>How to Judge Risk on Bulk Purchases
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I thought maybe we would talk about this aspect in Bulk Asset sales.
I find most people who try and play this game think Risk is about the board game.
I primarily work the analytic side of the deal. It is all about the numbers......
The key is market value.
How does everyone factor in market data for their offerings/purchases?
I monitor 5 basic things in any market.
Money in Motion
Number of sales
Average Sale
Median Sale
Price per SQFT
While I... continue reading >>
What are your planned and researched action steps to a better 2009?
Preview:
I see a lot of Motivational “Fluff” that comes out every New Years. Motivation without planned, researched action is just “Fluff”.
What are your planned and researched action steps to a better 2009?
Here a few modest tips to become more effective within this type of market:
1. When you plan your detailed action steps, include both positive contingencies and negative contingencies for yourself and/or business models
2. See the Macro picture. However you should focus on the Micro picture. Louis Pasteur said, “Fortune favors the prepared mind”. The great Yogi Berra said it best... continue reading >>
I found the most interesting thing
Preview:
For full disclosure. This study and thoughts focuses on my market.
I spent some time doing a case study of deeds in versus deeds out of the foreclosing lenders here in SWFL
I expected to find out whether they were hoarding inventory or not.
I found the plan.....
They all had a moratorium on foreclosures. Just prior to the streets test. They stopped taking inbound deeds in. There by not altering their current loss coverage's. They also sold all the REO's they could
They accomplished a few things here
Passed the stress test
Cleared the backlog of REO's... continue reading >>